ECLIPSES  IN  MAY  2003

A SIGNIFICANT EVENT

Haluk Akcam

Dec. 29, 2002

  

Eclipse Parameters

A Total Lunar Eclipse will take place on May 16, 2003, at 03:40:10 UT, and then an Annular Solar Eclipse on May 31, 2003, at 04:08:18 UT. The importance of ASE is emphasized due to its proximity to Aldebaran. Also, the interval is marked by planetary configurations, which are indicating a hard time. But, the most striking feature of these eclipses is that both will be occurring during sunrise at a particular geographic region: Western Europe.

   

15°00' W 65°30' N
00°00' E 58°25' N
15°00' E 43°28' N
30°00' E 11°34' N

Visibility path of TLE on the 16th of May is depicted above. The band between U2-U3 curves are corresponding to the total umbral obstruction. The detail showing the European part is on the above right. For a full screen high resolution, please click here. At the moment of greatest eclipse, geographical parameters of local sunrise are given on the right.

     

   

Visibility path of ASE on the 31st of May are shown on the left. Annularity can be observed only at Icelandic region down to Glasgow and Edinburgh of Scotland, as marked red on the map. But, the visibility area of the eclipse at sunrise is covering all Europe, even down to Arabian Peninsula.
For a full screen high resolution, please click here.
At the moment of greatest eclipse, geographical parameters of local sunrise are given below.

30°00' W 64°32' N
15°00' W 59°13' N
00°00' E 48°51' N
15°00' E 28°00' N

  

Terminator Combinations and Intersections

Both eclipses will be visible during sunrise from Europe. This rare occurrence is mainly due to the spatial coincidence of lunar orbital nodes and periapsis points, which enables two succeeding eclipses to take place at sunrise for the same region of the Earth. Here, the local sunrise terminators are synchronized with penumbral (P1-P4) and umbral (U1-U4) contact parameters of both eclipses. Regions beyond P1-P4 terminator curves are left pitch black. The most highlighted band between umbral contact terminators of May 31 (SE-U1 and SE-U4) is the most active region, since it is also within the umbral contact terminators of May 16 (LE-U1 and LE-U4), and thus constitutes the combination path:

The next indicator is the intersection path, which is derived by synchronizing the vertices of two instances. Here, the instant of greatest eclipse (G0) is synchronized with the local sunrise terminator for both instances: TLE is showing the sunrise terminator at the moment of greatest lunar eclipse on May 16, and ASE is showing the sunrise terminator at the moment of greatest solar eclipse on May 31.

    

 The highlighted area of the map on the left is showing the intersection path of these vertices.

Geographical parameters of the intersection line are:

15°00' W

62°22' N

00°00' E

53°38' N

15°00' E

35°44' N

30°00' E 02°27' N

Comparison of the paths gives a clear definition of affected countries: England and France are the most entailed ones. Italy, Switzerland, Benelux, and partly Germany are also affected to some degree. In brief, the core of European Union is being indicated here.

Intersection line of the combination map is midpoints of SE-U1 and SE-U4, namely SE-G0. Intersection line of the second map is midpoints of LE-G0 and SE-G0. As a result, the final intersection line of these twobecomes (LE-G0 + 3 SE-G0) / 4. This final line falls on 51°15' N at 00°00' E, which is the location of London city.

  

Geographical Parameters

At the moment of greatest lunar eclipse, on the 16th of May, Jupiter transits lower meridian at 24°52' N - 24°51' E, Libyan Desert, part of Sahara. Neptune and Mars culminate at 15°-19°N - 27°-29°E, somewhere in Sudan. But, at the moment of greatest solar eclipse, on the 31st of May, Neptune culminates at 43°06' N - 05°16' E, and Jupiter transits lower meridian at 43°23' N - 05°02' E. Both are strongly suggesting Marseilles, France (43°18' N - 05°23' E). For the same moment, Mars culminates at 27°59' N - 15°00' E, somewhere in Libya. For both eclipses, Uranus is beyond limits.

At the moment of greatest solar eclipse, when a-Tauri is rising instead of the Sun, Neptune and Jupiter axis will be pointing out 53°18' N - 05°16' E and 53°33' N - 05°02' E, respectively, which indicates north of Amsterdam (52°23' N - 04°45' E), coast of Netherlands.

 

Planetary Potentials

Raw planetary potentials are shown below for the period May 01 - June 14, 2003 (lunar effect is not included). At two points, we examine the possibility of some difficulties: May 13-14, and May 25/26. During eclipses, there are no specific potentials.

But the elaborated planetary potential graph (below) for the same period reveals some interesting features. A continuing trend will be operative between May 11-31, with a real troublesome period of May 12-15. In addition, a momentary problem may arise on the 21st of May, and a relief moment may be traced on the 29th of May.

But, the 15th of May seems interesting and requires examination, since it exceeds the tolerable limits. In respect to eclipses, planetary potentials are indicating that there are two sets of events both prior to related eclipses. First one is expected to take place between May 09-19, with a heavy peak on the 15th, and the second one between May 21-29, being the consequence of the former one.

   

Planetary Configurations

 

    

Left: Triple configurations for the period are showing some relatively long-term variations: First group is between May 10-17, and the second group is between May 23-29. Common indicator for both groups is the Jupiter-Mercury-Neptune T-cross, extending from 12th to 31st of May. Interesting is that the Sun is not aspected at all, during this period.

Right: Quadruple configurations for the period are seen only in May. Again, in conformity with two major groupings; Mars/Neptune-Mercury-Jupiter formation takes place between May 12-15, and Jupiter-Mercury/Venus-Neptune formation comes after between May 24-29. Remarkable is that none of the groups are related to the Sun.

    

Since there are no major solar configurations, the outcome of these eclipses may not be indicating a radical change in the course of world events. On the other hand, the frequency of lunar interventions is high, and needs special examination.

On the 15th, between 04:54-06:43 UT, first group will be intervened by the Moon, forming a Grand Cross. Then, the second group will be intervened by the Moon between May 28 21:09 UT - May 29 02:31 UT, intensifying a T-cross.

The triple conjunction of Moon-Mercury-Venus between May 28 21:09 UT and May 29 07:24 UT is lessening the adversity of the second group, and perhaps reversing the usual effect of the T-cross. But, the former one is remaining unaffected, rather transforming it to an alerting one. Thus, the 15th of May is becoming our focus during this period.

           

Geographical Parameters

For the period between May 01 - June 14, 2003, all possible triple configurations made by nine bodies (except the Moon) on the axes, are listed in a separate text file (may03dat.txt. Open with Notepad, please). Among them, only two cases are found in relation to this project: First one is on May 08, at 04:49 UT for 59°19' N - 14°38' E, when Mars culminates, Saturn rises, and Jupiter transits lower meridian. It is close to Stockholm, Sweden (59°17' N - 18°03' E). Second one is on May 30, at 04:25 UT for 44°41' N - 21°37' E, when Uranus culminates, Saturn rises, and Pluto sets. This one is very close to Belgrade, Serbia (44°50' N - 20°37' E).

The Grand Cross formed by Mars/Neptune-Mercury-Jupiter-Moon on May 15 suggests theoretically four geographical longitudes by placing each body on the meridian. But, within the given limits, it is only possible to observe the Mars/Neptune-Jupiter axis on the meridian. In Greenwich terms, Jupiter passage is at 05:22 UT, Neptune culminates at 05:32 UT, and Mars culminates at 05:36 UT. Since the planetary movement is slow, it is easy to adjust the time for other locations of the region, simply by adding or subtracting the longitudinal difference in hours. This configuration may be of some importance, due to the axial placement.

The T-cross formed by Neptune-Moon/Mercury/Venus-Jupiter on May 28/29 indicates theoretically three geographical longitudes by placing each body on the meridian. But, within the given limits, it is only possible to observe the Moon / Mercury / Venus triple conjunction on the lower meridian. In Greenwich terms, Moon passage is at 22:18 UT, Mercury passage is at 22:26 UT, and Venus passage is at 22:28 UT, May 28. Therefore, this configuration becomes not much of an importance for the region.

 

Result

Eclipses in May 2003 do not indicate a major change, due to the isolated Sun. But, western part of Europe may face some local problems, particularly on the 15th of May. The problem seems to be a social one, mostly to be seen in England or in France. Yet, the heavy configurations for Belgrade on the 30th of May suggest a typical unrest, which may affect the political conjuncture of the country adversely. On the 8th of May, a local misfortune may also occur in Sweden.

 


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